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North American economy in retreat

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1 year 5 months ago #118223 by Hoss
Hoss replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Fed announcement, another 1/4 point 'yawn'

The Fed now believes inflation will fall well short of its 2 percent target this year. The post-meeting statement said inflation "has declined recently" even as household spending as "picked up in recent months," the latter an upgrade from the May statement that said spending had "rose only modestly." The statement also noted that inflation in the next 12 months "is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term" but to stabilize.

Looks like they will play the low inflation card so they can hold off another hike for some time

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1 year 7 months ago #117926 by alexgreat
alexgreat replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
GB you should have went a lot lower. Big miss just 98,000, maybe because they did not pad it with Birth/death rate model, just 32k with the magic wand

www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

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1 year 7 months ago #117924 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Now that they got the rate increase done, I think a lower number will come in, about 170k

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1 year 7 months ago #117922 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Any bets on the job numbers this morning?? Consensus is 180k, I am going a bit higher at 195k

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1 year 8 months ago #117842 by alexgreat
alexgreat replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Good padding with birth death rate model, it added 124k, the highest number since October

www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

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1 year 8 months ago #117841 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
So just checked, we both a bit conservative, came in at 235k

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-...p-s-first-full-month

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1 year 8 months ago #117840 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Have not checked news yet, but I agree and would go with around 218k

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1 year 8 months ago #117839 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Jobs report today, I bet about 210K above 200 forecast, they will want a strong number to raise rates

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1 year 10 months ago #117426 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
US jobs came in at 156,000 a t less than the 175,000 expected but had decent wage growth at 0.4% but really only making up for November's 0.1% decline.

Amazing, for the 2nd month in a row there was no jobs added with the birth/death rate model, in fact they reported this as minus 28 jobs
www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

Maybe they are starting to report closer to real numbers?? although I have not looked at detail in the report yet

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1 year 11 months ago #117409 by alexgreat
alexgreat replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Gundlach, the bond king thinks we have to see yields rise a bit more before we worry

"I think above 3 percent is a problem," Gundlach told Reuters. "If the 10-year goes above 3 percent, you would also have to say unequivocally you have seen the end of the bond bull market."
www.reuters.com/article/us-funds-doublel...uters+Wealth+News%29

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1 year 11 months ago #117407 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
James Turk: “Everybody needs to be focusing on what is happening with interest rates, Eric. The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note is flirting with 2.50%. The last time we saw a yield that high was over two years ago. But rising yields are not just happening in the US. Yields are rising in Europe and Asia too. The upward pressure on interest rates is global, and more to the point, central banks are losing control…

Good article

kingworldnews.com/james-turk-central-ban...ally-losing-control/

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1 year 11 months ago #117391 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
The birth death rate came in at only 2,000 compare to 197,000 last month. How can new business completely shut down from booming one month to nothing the next.

www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

If this does not convince one that it is just a made up number, nothing will

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