North American economy in retreat

Obvious I did not look

U.S. Added 263,000 Jobs in April; Unemployment Rate at 3.6%

The economy produced another strong month of growth, and the jobless rate fell to the lowest level of the recovery.

www.nytimes.com/2019/05/03/business/econ...bs-report-april.html

I have not looked at the cards yet, but will go low 155k

seems we more often get surprises to the upside so I will guess 245k

US jobs number today, consensus is 181k I go with 220k

PMI data showed the German manufacturing sector contracting for the fourth month in a row, pushing investors into the safety of eurozone government bonds. While activity in Germany's services sector rose to a seven-month high in April, the focus surrounded the 44.5 reading for the manufacturing sector, well below the 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction. The reading comes a day after Germany slashed its 2019 growth forecast to 0.5%

GB, you get the prize, pretty close, came in at 196k
www.nytimes.com/2019/04/05/business/jobs...mployment-march.html

I will be the doom and gloom guy with 80,000. Trade problems, retail layoffs

Guys, don't forget about the masters of economic data. The Fed does not like to see the inverted yield curve that a bad number will cause or add to it. Don't forget about seasonal adjustments and birth/death rate that they can use to give a number over 200k. So I guess 210,000

I agree about more weakness. I will go with 120k

Any guesses on the jobs 3 today, consensus is 175k. I still think there is more weakness than most expect, will go with 145k

What an inverted yield curve really tells us is the inability of the Fed to forecast market turns. The Fed sets short term rates but they are always behind the curve since their model can never predict anything accurately. So instead of the Fed anticipating a downturn in the economy, the market will do it for them. The 10 year rate is set by the market, which clearly senses the impending recession and thus buys the bonds and forces the long term rate down below the short term rates. So the market knows before the Fed that trouble is coming…




kingworldnews.com/greyerz-the-fed-may-re...-signal-flashes-red/

Job numbers sucked today, just 20,000, the weather getting blamed, we will see

Wage growth at 3.4% was strong so looks like inflation returning

www.cnn.com/2019/03/08/economy/jobs-report-february/index.html