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Oil Top and decline 2014-15

SPX Market Trend slides

We became concerned with Oil end of August 2014 and presented the long term chart and a wedge formation. The trend was up  but we were concerned of a new policy by the U.S. and Saudi's to drive oil down to hurt Russia. Sanctions were not working, neither country liked Russia and it was believed lower Oil would boost the U.S. economy and the Saudi's could gain market share. We believed lower Oil would do more harm than good.

Early September my comment was: "However, I am watching the $90 level and than the $86 level. If we fall below this we could see a much larger decline and it would confirm the price is being manipulated lower." We sold our oil stocks and watched the 2 support levels give way.

In early 2015 we thought there could be a bottom around $45 (signalled by dojis) with around $55 1st resistance. Three tests of this failed so we concluded we were going back down and lower.

We started buying Pipelines late 2015 and Oil stocks early 2016, predicting a bottom. I will create another slide show from then to current on our Oil price trend predictions.

Recent Trends update Struthers Report V22 # 5.5 Gold, Oil, ASM, EUO May 17, 2016

The slides to left show my progressive analysis of the S&P 500 in 2015. The 3rd last chart on Oct 7th I commented that there was a very large short position and a rally higher to fill the gap created in the correction would not surprise me. This became reality. In late 2015 -tThe head and shoulders top was confirmed and a new down trend began.

For 2016 the decline intensified and it appears support around 1860 is failing. Support did fail and we got a new double bottom around 1800 with a current counter trend rally becoming exhausted.

 In May 2016, we were watching to see if support would hold at 2040 and 2000 and/or the down trend line would be broken to the upside. As you know we had a summer rally but breadth was poor.

In September we became concerned the market was ready for a sell off. GDP is weak, Job numbers mediocre that require birth/death rate padding, PMI continues to fall and went below 50, retial sales flat and most important earnings declined for the 5th straight quarter and are poised to make a historic record of 6 quarters in a roll. The market was riding on thin air and our Sept. 7th chart pointed to a break coming - to the down side. 

The last slide of the XAU shows the unprecendented decline and possible bottom.

HUI-GoldBugsIndex

In late 2015 we pointed out a bottom in the HUI with several tests around 105. We expected at least a tradeble rally for early 2016.

In early 2016 we pointed out the long term down trend line and pointed out we broke above that line in the beginning of February. We were looking for a higher high with a close above 145. When we seen the higher high, the solid bottom and the power of the rally among numrous other indicators we were among the 1st to declare a new Bull Market in gold stocks on February 8th.

We also pointed out the paper umbrella and expected a pull back to test the new 140 support area, we seen that and then a move higher. Our next target became 190.

Early April we pointed out the Golden Cross, tests of support and another up leg forming. Once we went over our 190 target, we are expecting sideways consolidation basically between 200 and 250 before another up move. A steeper correction to 180 are would be ideal to add positions but we think the odds are higher of just a sideways consolidation.

 

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This is a new section but will be used to highlight our analysis of Stock Market Trends, Interest Rates, Bonds  and Commodities

 

On Seeking Alpha    U.S. Recession And Bear Market On Horizon    January 2016

 Struthers Report V22 # 1.1 Outlook, Markets, Gold, K, NGD, G Call Options January 6 2016

Struthers Report V21 # 18.0 Fed, Rates, Gold Kinross, K Dec 14 2015

 

           Past major market calls tops, bottoms, reversals

April 2011

Called a top in Silver, sold all Silver stocks and in total sold or took profits in 17 precious metals stocks

Resource Stock Update - V17 #3. 6 – PAA, HL, FR, IMG, SVL, RIO, ABX, G, MFL, NGD, DPM, RIC, BTO, NCU, CAN, XG April 27 2011

 

Early to mid 2014

In this period we sold most Oil stocks early in 2014 with fears of not only a Oil price correction but a market correction and deflation wave. There were key levels I was watching to see if trends were continuing or would change.

  • A drop below $90 on Oil meant we were going a lot lower
  • I was watching $1200 Gold to see IF this would hold. And 85 on the US$ index, a break above meant a move higher.
  • I was also watching the 285 level on the Nasdaq Biotech ETF 'IBB' to see if we would get a double top or go higher. On the S&P 500 we were expected the 1850 area in the sell off to hold.

The results, the deflation continued in part because a break above 85 on the US$ index, The $90 level on Oil failed and so did $1200 on Gold. The IBB and S&P 500 broke higher after the expected correction.

As a result we expected a blow off phase in 2015, a topping and roll over in U.S. equity markets and the US$ Index and a bottom in Gold and Gold stocks. We do not see any good signal of a bottom in Oil yet, but we dipped our toes back in buying some high yielding Pipeline stocks in late 2015.

These trend expectations are outlined some in these 3 issues in September/October 2014

Resource Stock Update V20 #12.1 Markets, Gold, Oil, ERA, GGD Sept. 10, 2014

Resource Stock Update V20 #13.1 Markets, Bonds Gold US$ Sept. 22, 2014

Resource Stock Update V20 #15.3 Markets, Gold, Bonds, Deflation Oct. 16, 2014

 

With our website getting hacked I lost the chronological order of newsletters so it takes some time to look up the issues that predicted the major market turns!

2007 and 2008 Bubble Prediction coming soon

 

2000 tech bubble projection coming soon

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