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North American economy in retreat

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9 months 4 weeks ago #118522 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
With the overall U.S. auto market expected to decline this year to less than 17 million units, analysts said GM may have too many passenger car nameplates and too many underused assembly plants.

“There could be some consolidation” of passenger car production in fewer U.S. plants, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of LMC Automotive. “GM doesn’t need all the sedans it has today. They should look at reducing the number of sedan offerings and replacing some with SUVs or crossovers.”

“I don’t think we have too many” sedans, Alan Batey, president of GM’s North American operations, told Reuters in an interview. Batey added: “We’re in a good place to have a good 2017.”

Despite heavy discounting by some dealers, sales of GM passenger cars plunged 17 percent in the first half and 36 percent in June, far exceeding the industry-wide declines of 12 percent in the first half and 14 percent in June, according to Automotive News.

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9 months 4 weeks ago #118521 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF cut its U.S. GDP forecast for 2017 to 2.1% from its previous outlook of 2.3%, and for 2018 to 2.1% from 2.5%, “primarily reflecting the assumption that fiscal policy will be less expansionary going forward than previously anticipated.” Slowdowns in the U.S. and U.K. are expected to be offset by an improved outlook for growth in most of the euro zone and Japan; China is still seen growing by 6.7% in 2017 and 6.4% in 2018.

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11 months 1 week ago #118223 by Hoss
Hoss replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Fed announcement, another 1/4 point 'yawn'

The Fed now believes inflation will fall well short of its 2 percent target this year. The post-meeting statement said inflation "has declined recently" even as household spending as "picked up in recent months," the latter an upgrade from the May statement that said spending had "rose only modestly." The statement also noted that inflation in the next 12 months "is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term" but to stabilize.

Looks like they will play the low inflation card so they can hold off another hike for some time

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1 year 1 month ago #117926 by alexgreat
alexgreat replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
GB you should have went a lot lower. Big miss just 98,000, maybe because they did not pad it with Birth/death rate model, just 32k with the magic wand

www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

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1 year 1 month ago #117924 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Now that they got the rate increase done, I think a lower number will come in, about 170k

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1 year 1 month ago #117922 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Any bets on the job numbers this morning?? Consensus is 180k, I am going a bit higher at 195k

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1 year 2 months ago #117842 by alexgreat
alexgreat replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Good padding with birth death rate model, it added 124k, the highest number since October

www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

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1 year 2 months ago #117841 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
So just checked, we both a bit conservative, came in at 235k

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-...p-s-first-full-month

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1 year 2 months ago #117840 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Have not checked news yet, but I agree and would go with around 218k

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1 year 2 months ago #117839 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Jobs report today, I bet about 210K above 200 forecast, they will want a strong number to raise rates

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1 year 4 months ago #117426 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
US jobs came in at 156,000 a t less than the 175,000 expected but had decent wage growth at 0.4% but really only making up for November's 0.1% decline.

Amazing, for the 2nd month in a row there was no jobs added with the birth/death rate model, in fact they reported this as minus 28 jobs
www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

Maybe they are starting to report closer to real numbers?? although I have not looked at detail in the report yet

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1 year 5 months ago #117409 by alexgreat
alexgreat replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Gundlach, the bond king thinks we have to see yields rise a bit more before we worry

"I think above 3 percent is a problem," Gundlach told Reuters. "If the 10-year goes above 3 percent, you would also have to say unequivocally you have seen the end of the bond bull market."
www.reuters.com/article/us-funds-doublel...uters+Wealth+News%29

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