Chart Of The Day - PlayStocks

Chart Of The Day

PlayStocks Chart Of The Day

PlayStocks Chart of the Day  is a post updated regularly with new charts and commentary.

Oct 22 – Silver Breaks Out, We also highlighted the breakout on May – here we go

From NY Times Oct 17

Oct 17 HUI Gold Bugs Index, needs to close at 375 or higher

Oct 1, short barometer close to warning

September 30 Jackpot Digital TSXV:JJ

Sept 27, Oil Inventories keep falling to multi year lows

Sept. 25 Dow Transports don’t confirm new market highs

Sept 20. Volume in Gold etf remains flat

Sept 18 Traders Nervous ahead of Fed Rate Cut

Sept. 17 B2Gold Breakout

Sept 13 – Oil’s Strange Trading Pattern

Sept 12 Comparing Gold Stock ETFs, Kinroos and NewGold to Gold price Performance

Sept. 5, Silver’s New Bull Market

Sept. 4 – Job Openings Normalizing to Pre Pandemic

Sept 3, S&P 500 Double Top with Support Levels

Debt by State

Aug 8 Jobless Claims

Last week, fewer people filed for unemployment benefits than expected, showing some hope in the job market. The Labor Department reported 233,000 new claims, down 17,000 from the previous week and below the forecast of 240,000. The weaker numbers last week were blamed on the hurricane hitting Texas and annual auto plant shut downs, so not a great recovery in my books.

Also the 240,000 was a one year high. Smoothing things out, it is obvious on the chart that jobless claims are on the rise.

US Weekly Jobless Claims

Aug 8th Yen Carry Trade

Much of the volatility is caused by the Japan yen carry trade. That is where large investors borrow/short a falling yen yielding about 0% and buy a rising US$ and invest that in US stocks and bonds. If the Yen rises big it all blows up!

On the weekly chart you can see that trade was working all year until July. It really went bad as the BOJ raised rates during the same week the Fed signalled its intention to cut. There was a similar yen unwind trade during last years September/October correction but this recent unwind has been far steeper and faster. The -13% decline in Japan is more like a crash, not what we saw in the US markets, it is just a correction.

Aug, 1 - HUI Index since last top in 2011

There is two long term patterns on the chart underway. First we have a long term wedge pattern indicated by the blue lines. The HUI broke out of this to the upside in May.

2nd there is a long term cup and handle formation. I could have spent more time drawing a better cup but it is there. The break out from this will be a big deal. The HUI is now about 310 and the break out is about 375 and that is only about a 20% move higher. It is going to happen this fall/winter. Could be sooner with all the uncertainties abound.

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June 13, 2024

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