North American economy in retreat

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3 years 1 week ago #116886 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Nice chart on the ISM sent to me from a friend, shows a good picture how the economy has been declining.
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3 years 1 week ago #116876 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Article on CNN hypes that the Fed has no good reason not to raise rates. They talk about the economy is doing pretty good and has gone through all the hickups that the Fed worried about very well.

money.cnn.com/2016/09/02/news/economy/au...l-reserve/index.html ?

Yet America's central bank is keeping interest rates at levels that are so low, they scream: "Crisis!"
"It is no longer credible to assert that this economy is underperforming," says Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank.

These goons are missing the most important point and that is the numbers are BS and the economy is not very well. The Fed knows it and so does all the powers that be.

So their problem is if they raise rates in the face of a weak economy, which is the reality - things will get worse. They have already stretched their line of bull so long, the Fed continues to lose credibility. They were hoping the real numbers would improve and get them out from under the rock or hard place.

But hope is not a plan

So they keep kicking the can down the road and keep hoping.

That leaves one question, will they reveal the real weakness of the economy or create more bull and eventually raise rates?

They are painted in a corner with little option. I say raise rates - going up to 1% is not going to hurt the real economy any more than it is now

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3 years 1 week ago #116875 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
The dollar dropped to $95.2 and has recovered so no big effect there.

For sure no sign of economic strength, the biggest jobs gains came in bars and restaurants, which added 34,000 positions.

I think the idea of a contest would be fun, we are all thinking about a number anyway, it is all a bunch a bull, but is the biggest focus of the market for some time

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3 years 1 week ago #116874 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Congrats, you two pegged it with jobs coming in slightly below expectations at 151,000, just to delay the Fed as you predicted.

They had to use 106,000 created with the birth death rate model to get a number this good.

Maybe we should run a monthly contest on picking the jobs #??

"We had a couple above numbers in the last two months. This is a below-average number," said Jeff Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab. "All that suggests the job market is OK, but it probably does put September off the table" for an interest rate hike.

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3 years 2 weeks ago #116873 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
They jawboned the $$ up and todays poor PMI dropped it about 1/2 cent see X, but still some room for a week jobs # to take it back 94.5 before the Jackson hole BS.
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3 years 2 weeks ago #116872 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Lynnsa. since I am a betting man, I would go with your projection. Median projection is 173,000 so probably come in between 155,000 and 175,000

www.marketwatch.com/Economy-Politics/Calendars/Economic

Remember, it is not the jobs #, it is the # the Fed and all think should go out there to manage their economic dream world

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3 years 2 weeks ago #116871 by lynnsa10
lynnsa10 replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
I like the part when asked about Trump or Clinton. He pretty much says either choice is poor. An American friend tells me that the choice is a criminal or crazy man. Greenspan likes Paul Ryan, but America will need to be in severe crisis to go with a Ryan type

I am thinking the jobs # tomorrow will be to expectations or a bit lower, just enough excuse for the Fed not to move in September. Obvious PMI is showing a more accurate picture

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3 years 2 weeks ago #116870 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Yup Greenspan has the problem right. We already know where we are headed because Japan started down the same path earlier than N America. The chance of the US economy gaining any decent momentum is about zero in the foreseeable future.

Today is more news on that front. The Institute for Supply Management’s headline manufacturing index fell to 49.4% in August from 52.6% in July. It was below consensus estimates calling for 52.1% to 52.2%.

Below 50 signals economic contraction. Knee jerk $ down on the news and Gold up

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3 years 2 weeks ago #116869 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
A video a while back in the topic with Greenspan has been removed. This is a more recent one from May this year. He describes the economic problem as low productivity growth because it is being crowded out by entitlements that are impeding capital investment. I think he has it right but little hope of addressing the problem.

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3 years 2 weeks ago #116866 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
The headline index for the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell to 51.5 in August from 55.8 in July. Expectations were for a reading of between 54.5 and 55.2.

Doesn't look very robust

Supply Management’s PMI for the entire nation, which is scheduled for release on Thursday.

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3 years 2 weeks ago #116865 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
probably more action from this weeks jobs # might be the turning point for markets

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3 years 2 weeks ago #116864 by alexgreat
alexgreat replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
US$ up and back down

Here’s a rather unsympathetic assessment of how financial markets reacted to Janet Yellen’s speech from David Lamb, head of dealing a FEXCO Corporate Payments. He says traders are “unable to see their terminals for the egg on their faces”.

US stock markets are rallying in the wake of Janet Yellen’s speech, says Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading company IG.

He believes Yellen opted to “please both hawks and doves”.

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