North American economy in retreat

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2 years 10 months ago #116872 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Lynnsa. since I am a betting man, I would go with your projection. Median projection is 173,000 so probably come in between 155,000 and 175,000

www.marketwatch.com/Economy-Politics/Calendars/Economic

Remember, it is not the jobs #, it is the # the Fed and all think should go out there to manage their economic dream world

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2 years 10 months ago #116871 by lynnsa10
lynnsa10 replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
I like the part when asked about Trump or Clinton. He pretty much says either choice is poor. An American friend tells me that the choice is a criminal or crazy man. Greenspan likes Paul Ryan, but America will need to be in severe crisis to go with a Ryan type

I am thinking the jobs # tomorrow will be to expectations or a bit lower, just enough excuse for the Fed not to move in September. Obvious PMI is showing a more accurate picture

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2 years 10 months ago #116870 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Yup Greenspan has the problem right. We already know where we are headed because Japan started down the same path earlier than N America. The chance of the US economy gaining any decent momentum is about zero in the foreseeable future.

Today is more news on that front. The Institute for Supply Management’s headline manufacturing index fell to 49.4% in August from 52.6% in July. It was below consensus estimates calling for 52.1% to 52.2%.

Below 50 signals economic contraction. Knee jerk $ down on the news and Gold up

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2 years 10 months ago #116869 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
A video a while back in the topic with Greenspan has been removed. This is a more recent one from May this year. He describes the economic problem as low productivity growth because it is being crowded out by entitlements that are impeding capital investment. I think he has it right but little hope of addressing the problem.

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2 years 10 months ago #116866 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
The headline index for the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell to 51.5 in August from 55.8 in July. Expectations were for a reading of between 54.5 and 55.2.

Doesn't look very robust

Supply Management’s PMI for the entire nation, which is scheduled for release on Thursday.

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2 years 10 months ago #116865 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
probably more action from this weeks jobs # might be the turning point for markets

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2 years 10 months ago #116864 by alexgreat
alexgreat replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
US$ up and back down

Here’s a rather unsympathetic assessment of how financial markets reacted to Janet Yellen’s speech from David Lamb, head of dealing a FEXCO Corporate Payments. He says traders are “unable to see their terminals for the egg on their faces”.

US stock markets are rallying in the wake of Janet Yellen’s speech, says Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading company IG.

He believes Yellen opted to “please both hawks and doves”.

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2 years 10 months ago #116863 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
"The problem with this economy is there is so many numbers each day," Fischer said. "You have to try and figure out what is the main thrust of what's going on in the economy."

"You can always find a set of data that will enable you to build a different case," he continued. "That's the hard part."

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2 years 10 months ago #116862 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Next out trots Fisher. The main reason they are talking rates up is because the stock market is at highs

video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000546345

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2 years 10 months ago #116861 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Usual Fed speek at Jackson hole, looks good to raise rates if but if

“In light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months,” Yellen said.

“Of course, our decisions always depend on the degree to which incoming data continues to confirm the committee’s outlook.”
www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/26...eserve-interest-rate

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2 years 10 months ago #116636 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Seems home sales are the bright spot

The Commerce Department says new-home sales jumped 12.4 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 654,000 units, the strongest level since October 2007. Demand has eclipsed the pace of construction. Just 4.3 months’ supply of new homes is on the market, down from 5.2 months a year ago.

Strange though that prices down. July’s median sales price dipped 0.5 percent from a year ago to $294,600.

Maybe more low end buyers??
dfw.cbslocal.com/2016/08/23/us-new-home-...vel-since-late-2007/

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2 years 11 months ago #67781 by alexgreat
alexgreat replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
According to the CME 30-day Fed fund futures, expectations are relatively stable in the near term with markets only pricing in a 12% chance that the U.S. central bank will hike rates in either September or November.

However, Friday’s weaker economic data has caused expectations for a December rate hike to fall. Currently markets see a 38% chance of a rate hike by the end of the year, down significantly from 52% priced in Thursday.

Expectations in early 2017 have also dropped, with markets pricing in a 42% chance for a rate hike in February, down from 52% priced in Thursday. For March, Fed funds are pricing in a 47% chance the Fed pulls the trigger, down from 59% seen Thursday.

Analysts have noted that the Fed has never hiked interest rates when markets have priced in a less than 50% chance of a move.

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