North American economy in retreat

Numbers were better than expected, probably to make the Fed pause decision look good lol

U.S. hiring was surprisingly solid last month as employers added 128,000 jobs despite a General Motors strike that held down overall payrolls and the loss of 20,000 temporary census workers, easing recession concerns.

The unemployment rate rose from a 50-year low of 3.5% to 3.6%, the Labor Department said Friday.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected 85,000 job gains.

Even more encouraging: Job gains for August and September were revised up by 95,000. August’s additions were bumped from 168,000 to 219,000 and September’s from 136,000 180,000.

The six-week GM strike was expected to reduce employment by the company’s 46,000 idled workers, as well as about 9,000 employees at auto suppliers indirectly affected, according to Morgan Stanley. That’s a blip that’s likely to boost November payrolls since striking workers will be back on the job, the research firm said

Other transitory crosscurrents, however, also could have distorted the figures. October rebounds in employment after hurricanes in 2017 and 2018 may have skewed Labor’s seasonal adjustment of the raw numbers, further tempering the job gains, Goldman Sachs said.

Economists expect Friday’s U.S. payrolls report will show job growth slumped to a five-month low in October, though it may be trickier than usual to sort out the true underlying trend.

The data will likely reflect the impact of 46,000 striking General Motors Co. workers, as well as related effects from any idling at the company’s suppliers and contractors.

another bad data point for US economy

Job numbers pretty weak today at 130k

This guy explains the current market risk very well and easy to understand

Lynnsa pulled this chart from your link.. Export orders are crashing to 2007 levels

The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers index fell to 49.1 in August, weaker than all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists, data released Tuesday showed. Figures below 50 indicate the manufacturing economy is generally shrinking. The group’s gauge of new orders dropped to a more than seven-year low, while the production index hit the lowest since late 2015.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-...-time-in-three-years

Interest read by Mike Hudson, here is a tidbit

Fast forward to today: Indebted students graduate with an obligation to pay so much education debt that they cannot qualify for mortgages to buy homes of their own. Marriage rates are down, U.S. home ownership is plunging, and rents are rising. Automobile debt also has soared, leading to rising default rates second only to student debt defaults. The overhang of junk-mortgage debts that crashed the economy in 2008 remains on the books of families who managed to survive the ten million foreclosures under the Obama bailout of Wall Street. (His constituency turned out to be his Donor Class, not the junk-mortgage victims among his voters. He characterized them as “the mob with pitchforks” to the banksters he invited to the White House to celebrate his bailout.)

By driving down interest rates, the Fed’s policy of Quantitative Easing has subsidized an enormous debt buildup without increasing the interest burden proportionally. This has enabled corporations to carry much higher debt and even indulge in leveraged buyouts and stock buyback programs.

www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/07/michael-...ings-writedowns.html

Recovery in the jobs number, just in time for some good news

The jobs report showed the economy added 224,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, more than economists had expected.

The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.7%, and wages accelerated at a slightly slower pace than expected.

The report eased concerns about a slowdown following surprisingly disappointing results in May, and dampened expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month.


markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/...ne-2019-7-1028332289

Some great analysis of jobs report here

www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-07/huge-p...&utm_campaign=jun-10

No guesses at the jobs number last week and it was a shocker

The US economy created far fewer jobs than expected last month and wages also rose less than forecast.

Some 75,000 jobs were created in May rather than the 185,000 expected by analysts, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

The dollar dropped as markets assumed that the slower-than-expected job growth meant a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve was more likely.

But the US unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, its lowest level for 50 years.

The US dollar fell more than 0.4% against the pound, the euro and the yen after the jobs figures were published.

Good update on bond markets and interest rates

On Pace for $1.5 trillion in new U.S. debt. Could be pressure for higher corporate rates.
Has Fed manipulation put risk of unwind in markets?
Never seen this in history before, can't seem to ease much QE
3.2% seemed to be ceiling for economy
Developed world did not cleaned up balance sheet in last down turn, but increased it