North American economy in retreat

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1 year 6 months ago #118830 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Any guesses on jobs # this morning, about 180,000 consensus. I think a bit higher around 200,000

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1 year 7 months ago #118644 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Well 209,000 came in a bit on the high side. Did not check birth death rate model though??

www.wsj.com/livecoverage/july-jobs-repor...-employment-analysis

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1 year 7 months ago #118635 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Seems everyone gave up on guessing jobs numbers in US, 183,000 expected to be added, reported today

Seems media does not focus much here, instead it is all about what is wrong with Trump

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1 year 8 months ago #118525 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
And retail sales have been lousy

May seen biggest slump in 16 months

www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-retail-sales-20170614-story.html

And June numbers were a 0.2% decline when a gain was expected

www.cnbc.com/2017/07/14/us-retail-sales-june-2017.html

I think the market rally based on recovery from new Trump administration is just hope with reality not likely

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1 year 8 months ago #118522 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
With the overall U.S. auto market expected to decline this year to less than 17 million units, analysts said GM may have too many passenger car nameplates and too many underused assembly plants.

“There could be some consolidation” of passenger car production in fewer U.S. plants, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of LMC Automotive. “GM doesn’t need all the sedans it has today. They should look at reducing the number of sedan offerings and replacing some with SUVs or crossovers.”

“I don’t think we have too many” sedans, Alan Batey, president of GM’s North American operations, told Reuters in an interview. Batey added: “We’re in a good place to have a good 2017.”

Despite heavy discounting by some dealers, sales of GM passenger cars plunged 17 percent in the first half and 36 percent in June, far exceeding the industry-wide declines of 12 percent in the first half and 14 percent in June, according to Automotive News.

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1 year 8 months ago #118521 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF cut its U.S. GDP forecast for 2017 to 2.1% from its previous outlook of 2.3%, and for 2018 to 2.1% from 2.5%, “primarily reflecting the assumption that fiscal policy will be less expansionary going forward than previously anticipated.” Slowdowns in the U.S. and U.K. are expected to be offset by an improved outlook for growth in most of the euro zone and Japan; China is still seen growing by 6.7% in 2017 and 6.4% in 2018.

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1 year 9 months ago #118223 by Hoss
Hoss replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Fed announcement, another 1/4 point 'yawn'

The Fed now believes inflation will fall well short of its 2 percent target this year. The post-meeting statement said inflation "has declined recently" even as household spending as "picked up in recent months," the latter an upgrade from the May statement that said spending had "rose only modestly." The statement also noted that inflation in the next 12 months "is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term" but to stabilize.

Looks like they will play the low inflation card so they can hold off another hike for some time

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1 year 11 months ago #117926 by alexgreat
alexgreat replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
GB you should have went a lot lower. Big miss just 98,000, maybe because they did not pad it with Birth/death rate model, just 32k with the magic wand

www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

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1 year 11 months ago #117924 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Now that they got the rate increase done, I think a lower number will come in, about 170k

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1 year 11 months ago #117922 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Any bets on the job numbers this morning?? Consensus is 180k, I am going a bit higher at 195k

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2 years 2 weeks ago #117842 by alexgreat
alexgreat replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Good padding with birth death rate model, it added 124k, the highest number since October

www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

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2 years 2 weeks ago #117841 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
So just checked, we both a bit conservative, came in at 235k

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-...p-s-first-full-month

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