North American economy in retreat

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3 years 3 months ago #281 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Here is the chart from the article shows how dealer inventory spiked since December
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3 years 3 months ago #280 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
I think the real reason the Fed is talking up rates is they are having trouble selling US debt and need foreign buyers. The primary dealers for US Treasuries held more Treasuries last month then at anytime in the past 2 years.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-...xposes-market-cracks

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3 years 3 months ago #273 by DearJohn
DearJohn replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
It seems once the stock market is looking better the Fed switches jaw boning back to rate increases. It was not long ago Bullard was dovish, now he switches chaits

If the dollar .DXY can keep its footing going into the long Easter weekend it will notch up a near 2 percent, and first weekly gain in a month against the world's other major currencies. [USD/]

The hot streak extended after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard joined a chorus of officials in highlighting the chance of at least two rate hikes this year, with the first perhaps as soon as April.

Markets imply only one increase and dealers suspect an orchestrated attempt by the Fed to shift that thinking.

www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-idUSKCN0WQ01B

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3 years 3 months ago #215 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Looks like others catching on to Fed reacting to markets

""And even though Fed chair Janet Yellen has said it's not the Fed's policy to respond to "the ups and downs of the markets," the central bank admitted it did so in September, arguing that the volatility was a reflection of the gloomy global economic outlook.""

money.cnn.com/2016/03/02/news/economy/fe...section=money_latest

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3 years 3 months ago #211 by lynnsa10
lynnsa10 replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
And yet another Fed member comes out today to talk down rates. Who is next???

An influential Federal Reserve official on Tuesday said he sees downside risks to his U.S. economic outlook, an assessment that could flag a longer pause before the Fed's next interest-rate hike than he and his colleagues had earlier signaled.

"At this moment, I judge that the balance of risks to my growth and inflation outlooks may be starting to tilt slightly to the downside," New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said in remarks at a conference in Hangzhou, China sponsored by the People's Bank of China and the New York Fed.

www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-dudley-idUSKCN0W33BI

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3 years 3 months ago #191 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Looks to me that the Fed is certainly trying to talk it's way out of further rate increases. Last week another Fed member.
"Tightening financial conditions in the U.S. over the past year and a half have reached the equivalent of three quarter-percentage-point interest-rate hikes, said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard on Friday."

www.marketwatch.com/story/market-forces-...nard-says-2016-02-26

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3 years 4 months ago #170 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Check this out from Ron Paul a few weeks ago – even I would not bet against this dude!!

Few people in America today have Dr. Paul’s knowledge of the inner workings of both the government and the U.S. financial system…
After all, Dr. Paul spent more than two decades in Congress. He served on the House Banking Committee and the Committee on Foreign Affairs.
He sponsored more than 600 legislative bills. He met with every President of the past 40 years and every Fed Chairman. He spent thousands of hours in top secret, closed-door meetings.

During his recent visit in Washington, he said:
The way you live, work, travel, retire, and invest in America… everything is going to change. Some of it in ways most people do not expect. This period is going to be particularly tough on seniors and anyone relying on a fixed income, or money from the government.”
“Trouble is coming—please make sure you, your family, and anyone you care about are prepared.”


thecrux.com/dyncontent/ron-paul-one-step...147626&eid=MKT233254

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3 years 4 months ago #168 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
I think this comment from Bullard at the Fed is a good example.

It would be "unwise" for the U.S. Federal Reserve to continue hiking interest rates given declining inflation expectations and recent equity market volatility, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Wednesday in comments that mark a stark change of direction for one of the Fed's more hawkish inflation foes.

www.cnbc.com/2016/02/18/st-louis-feds-bu...e-hikes-for-now.html

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3 years 4 months ago #167 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Yes, I believe so we have seen a bounce off the 1825 area twice, what I have called the "line in the sand"

And the Fed is already trying to talk the market up and changing gears on interest rate outlook

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3 years 4 months ago #166 by lynnsa10
lynnsa10 replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Professor like the pic. Under Market Trends you have a chart of S&P that shows Fed will act between 1850 down to 1700, do you still think that is accurate?

We just recently dropped a bit below 1850

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3 years 4 months ago #165 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Another prediction of more QE a post a zero hedge. Whenever equity market price gets this distorted to US treasuries there is some kind of QE, shows a nice chart

www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-20/why-ac...ntervention-imminent

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3 years 4 months ago #158 by DearJohn
DearJohn replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Mr Dalio, by one measure the most successful hedge fund manager of all time, argued in a note to clients that these measures have been exhausted and are increasingly ineffective.

"While QE will push asset prices somewhat higher, investors/savers will still want to save, lenders will still be cautious lenders, and cautious borrowers will remain cautious, so we will still have 'pushing on a string,'" he wrote.

He therefore predicts that central banks will eventually have to usher in what he calls "monetary policy 3" -- where rate cuts were the first stage and quantitative easing the second phase -- which will more directly and forcefully encourage spending.

The Bridgewater founder says this third era of monetary policy will range from central banks directly financing government spending through electronic money-printing to what the famous economist Milton Friedman coined "helicopter money" in 1969 -- in other words, central banks disbursing cash directly to households. ...

www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5bc2c2be-d666-11...9b-8564e7528e54.html

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