North American economy in retreat

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3 years 2 weeks ago #116863 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
"The problem with this economy is there is so many numbers each day," Fischer said. "You have to try and figure out what is the main thrust of what's going on in the economy."

"You can always find a set of data that will enable you to build a different case," he continued. "That's the hard part."

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3 years 2 weeks ago #116862 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Next out trots Fisher. The main reason they are talking rates up is because the stock market is at highs

video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000546345

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3 years 2 weeks ago #116861 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Usual Fed speek at Jackson hole, looks good to raise rates if but if

“In light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months,” Yellen said.

“Of course, our decisions always depend on the degree to which incoming data continues to confirm the committee’s outlook.”
www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/26...eserve-interest-rate

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3 years 3 weeks ago #116636 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Seems home sales are the bright spot

The Commerce Department says new-home sales jumped 12.4 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 654,000 units, the strongest level since October 2007. Demand has eclipsed the pace of construction. Just 4.3 months’ supply of new homes is on the market, down from 5.2 months a year ago.

Strange though that prices down. July’s median sales price dipped 0.5 percent from a year ago to $294,600.

Maybe more low end buyers??
dfw.cbslocal.com/2016/08/23/us-new-home-...vel-since-late-2007/

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3 years 1 month ago #67781 by alexgreat
alexgreat replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
According to the CME 30-day Fed fund futures, expectations are relatively stable in the near term with markets only pricing in a 12% chance that the U.S. central bank will hike rates in either September or November.

However, Friday’s weaker economic data has caused expectations for a December rate hike to fall. Currently markets see a 38% chance of a rate hike by the end of the year, down significantly from 52% priced in Thursday.

Expectations in early 2017 have also dropped, with markets pricing in a 42% chance for a rate hike in February, down from 52% priced in Thursday. For March, Fed funds are pricing in a 47% chance the Fed pulls the trigger, down from 59% seen Thursday.

Analysts have noted that the Fed has never hiked interest rates when markets have priced in a less than 50% chance of a move.

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3 years 1 month ago #67780 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
The quality of the new jobs is still poor. Also out Friday, US retail sales disappoint to the downside and come out flat. A good comment said it all

"Fed members are afraid to come out from under their rocks until growth is sustainably solid and inflation in, near or at their target, and today's reports don't provide them with any comfort that will happen soon," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania.


www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKCN10N1DL
The following user(s) said Thank You: alexgreat

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3 years 1 month ago #7566 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
US jobs come in above expectations at 255,000. Not bad, only 112,000 with Birth/death rate model which is an average number. Have not looked at any detail in report yet

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3 years 1 month ago #4330 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Ron your latest newsletter about all the $$ going to Banksters and not the economy, here is more proof according to J.T. O'DONNELL ,Founder and CEO, CareerHMO.com

Entrepreneurship hit a 20-year low in America in 2014. Since then, we've seen a small rebound. But, there are still some serious concerns about the reduction in entrepreneurship as a whole. Many are saying it's why wages are so stagnant.

www.inc.com/jt-odonnell/how-the-lack-of-...pdates+%28Inc.com%29

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3 years 1 month ago #703 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
"We reiterate our determination to use all policy tools - monetary, fiscal and structural - to achieve our goal of strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth," leaders from the world's top economies declared in a joint communique on Sunday following a conference in Chengdu, China.

I guess that means they will do anything. I wonder how long before the $$Helicopters arrive

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3 years 2 months ago #677 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
I know it is summer, fishing and vacation, but did anyone see that last BS job numbers???

For June USA say 287,000 jobs, but they kill the May number down to 11,000

Average of the 2 numbers is 149,000 - pretty sad and how desperate are they to create a headline number??

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3 years 2 months ago #583 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Turk says Banks drowing in bad debt, especially Europe, 18% of loans at Italian Banks not performing kingworldnews.com/the-world-is-headed-fo...eres-the-scary-part/

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3 years 3 months ago #504 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
World Bank now projects U.S. growth at only 1.9% vs. 2.7% previously; Japan at 0.5%, down a full 100 basis points since the January projection.Chinese growth, however, is still estimated at 6.7%.

Like all official dome they always chase reality downwards and are too optomistic, but they also concerned Fed raises rates too quick

www.marketwatch.com/story/world-bank-tri...-forecast-2016-06-07

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