North American economy in retreat

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2 weeks 3 days ago #122540 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
GB, you get the prize, pretty close, came in at 196k
www.nytimes.com/2019/04/05/business/jobs...mployment-march.html

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2 weeks 3 days ago #122539 by DearJohn
DearJohn replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
I will be the doom and gloom guy with 80,000. Trade problems, retail layoffs

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2 weeks 3 days ago #122538 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Guys, don't forget about the masters of economic data. The Fed does not like to see the inverted yield curve that a bad number will cause or add to it. Don't forget about seasonal adjustments and birth/death rate that they can use to give a number over 200k. So I guess 210,000

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2 weeks 3 days ago #122537 by alexgreat
alexgreat replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
I agree about more weakness. I will go with 120k

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2 weeks 3 days ago #122536 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Any guesses on the jobs 3 today, consensus is 175k. I still think there is more weakness than most expect, will go with 145k

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3 weeks 4 hours ago #122495 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
What an inverted yield curve really tells us is the inability of the Fed to forecast market turns. The Fed sets short term rates but they are always behind the curve since their model can never predict anything accurately. So instead of the Fed anticipating a downturn in the economy, the market will do it for them. The 10 year rate is set by the market, which clearly senses the impending recession and thus buys the bonds and forces the long term rate down below the short term rates. So the market knows before the Fed that trouble is coming…




kingworldnews.com/greyerz-the-fed-may-re...-signal-flashes-red/
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1 month 2 weeks ago #122410 by alexgreat
alexgreat replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Job numbers sucked today, just 20,000, the weather getting blamed, we will see

Wage growth at 3.4% was strong so looks like inflation returning

www.cnn.com/2019/03/08/economy/jobs-report-february/index.html

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1 month 3 weeks ago #122311 by DearJohn
DearJohn replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Kay Daniel Neufeld, managing economist at the CEBR thinktank, is relieved that America avoided an abrupt slowdown in the last quarter.

However, he also expects growth will be slower in 2019 - averaging 2.3% (again, below that 3% target).

Neufeld writes:

Contrary to most other large economies, the US has bucked the trend and recorded faster GDP growth in 2018 than in the previous year. The weak retail sales recorded for December alarmed analysts fearing an abrupt slowdown to the US expansion in the final quarter of last year, but today’s stronger than expected GDP data suggest the December figures might have been a blip.

Nevertheless, there is little room for complacency. With the world economy slowing and the US –China trade conflict merely on hold, there are plenty of pitfalls to avoid if the US wants to achieve another stellar performance in 2019.”

www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/f...growth-business-live

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2 months 1 week ago #122172 by alexgreat
alexgreat replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Retail sales not looking good

The Commerce Department said retail sales tumbled by 1.2 percent in December after inching up by a revised 0.1 percent in November.

Economists had expected retail sales to rise by 0.2 percent, matching the uptick originally reported for the previous month.

Excluding a jump in auto sales, retail sales plunged by an even steeper 1.8 percent in December after coming in unchanged in November. Ex-auto sales had been expected to edge up by 0.1 percent.

Adding to the negative sentiment, a report from the Labor Department showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased in the week ended February 9th.

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3 months 2 weeks ago #121836 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
Good job numbers today, beat expectations 312,000
www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/nonfarm-payrolls-december-2018.html

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4 months 2 weeks ago #121687 by GoldnBoy
GoldnBoy replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
I think it actually comes out at 8AM. Anyway a miss 155,000, earnings rose 0.2% so still some inflation pressure.

I guess markets like it because might keep the Fed holding back on rates?

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4 months 2 weeks ago #121686 by Gambler
Gambler replied the topic: North American economy in retreat
jobs number out soon, expected to be 200,000

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