North American Economy Retreating - PlayStocks

North American Economy Retreating

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    RonS
    Keymaster
    none
    Jobs report this Friday. Any guesses

    On Monday, a key barometer of U.S. factories fell in June for the third month in a row, signaling that an ongoing slump in the industrial side of the economy shows no sign of ending. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index slipped to 48.5% in June from 48.7% in the prior month. Numbers below 50% signal that the manufacturing sector is shrinking.

    The manufacturing economy still appears to be stalled,” said Timothy Fiore, chairman of the ISM Manufacturing Business Committee.

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      Gambler
      Participant
      none
      Looks like core inflation remains stuck well above Feds 2% target.

       

      Core CPI inflation, the more important metric for policymakers as it excludes the more fickle food and energy sub indexes, was 3.3% last month, compared to projections of 3.2%, where it also stood in July and August.

      Gambler
      Participant
      none
      Weaker numbers, but not as bad as I thought.
      <p align=”JUSTIFY”>US employers added 142,000 jobs in August as hiring bounced back at least partly after temporary hurdles curtailed payroll gains the previous month and sparked recession fears.</p>
      The unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, the Labor Department said Friday.

       

      RonS
      Keymaster
      none
      Fed cuts in election year

      Great comments guys, but look at this
      The last time the Fed cut rates within two months of an election was in 2008 when the Fed chopped rates to near zero during the Great Recession. Before that, the Fed cut rates in 1992 as the economy slowed. Neither of those rate cuts helped the incumbent party to stay in power, as in both years the White House changed hands from Republicans to Democrats.
      According to history, whenever the Fed cuts, Democrats win

      AlexGreat
      Participant
      none
      <p align=”JUSTIFY”>Jackson Hole, Jerome Powell, has said “the time has come” to begin cutting its key interest rate from its 23-year high.</p>
      But in a closely watched speech, Powell did not say when rate cuts would begin or how large they might be.

      The Fed is widely expected to announce a modest quarter-point cut in its benchmark rate when it meets in mid-September.

      Gambler
      Participant
      none
      Alex, ADP job numbers came in about 40,000 below consensus. U.S. businesses generated just 99,000 new jobs in August, paycheck company ADP said, to mark the smallest increase since 2021 in another sign of a rapidly cooling labor market.

      Maybe a soft number to prepare market for tomorrow???????

       

      Gambler
      Participant
      none
      The jobs number tomorrow is like all in the way they talking about it

      The consensus is for the nonfarm payrolls report to show growth of 161,000 for August and a slight decline in the unemployment rate to 4.2%.

       

      I think the number will come in at 120k or lower to give the Fed an excuse to cut rates ahead of the election???

       

      Any other guessses

       

       

        AlexGreat
        Participant
        none
        Gambler, good point but if the number is too low, it makes Biden administration look bad on the economic front.

        So i predict a weak number about 150k, enough to show a slow down and 1/4 point cut, but Bidenomics still producing jobs

         

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