Macquarie - Equities Research
Drone Delivery Canada - FLT CN
Innovation Takes Flight – Raise TP to $3
We are raising our TP to $3.00 from $2.50 on increased revenue certainty post FLT receiving the Compliant UAV Operator Special Flight Operations Certificate (SFOC) from Transport Canada that effectively allows it to become the first authorized drone delivery operator in the country.
We consider achieving the SFOC milestone to be significant for several reasons: First, it fully de-risks the binary nature of the stock as the company has successfully overcome a key regulatory hurdle; Second, it paves the pat h for FLT to achieve BVLOS commercialization later this year contingent upon flight path approval; Third, we consider this to be an endorsement by Transport Canada on FLT’s proven business model, safe track record and management quality. We think this approval will facilitate future regulatory process involving larger drones that are critical to FLT’s economics; Finally, this milestone illustrates Canada’s willingness to leverage new technology that will position the country at the forefront of drone service adoption and innovations.
Maintain OP-rating. We consider FLT the best drone pure-play globally that is well positioned for the growing drone utilization across North America (link to thematic) and in Canada ( link to initiation).
Raising estimate on increased revenue certainty. We are raising our monthly revenue per site assumption to $20k/month from $15k/month in 2019E and scaling to $32k/month by 2028E as we expect FLT to achieve higher volume and/or payload as it expands nationwide. Our 2028E terminal year revenue estimate of $722m implies 6% of Canada’s air freight market (vs. 5% prior), which we think is reasonable given FLT’s first-mover and cabotage advantage. ( LINK)
Catalysts on the horizon: Flight path approval and bigger drones. Following the SFOC status, FLT will work with Transport Canada on establishing authorized flight path in northern Canada. We expect 5-10 path to be approved in the first batch with the Moose Factory/Moosonee region being one of them. We also expect additional regulatory approval on heavier drones given their importance on justifying the economics of the business model.
Earnings and target price revision
Raise TP to $3.
12-month price target: C$3.00 based on a DCF methodology.
Catalyst: Flight path approval, new customers, heavy drones, positive test results
Action and recommendation
Fundamental to our thesis is the prospect that FLT can achieve sufficient scale via drones with larger payload. In the event that regulatory approvals face delays or unobtainable, the stock would have questionable value in our view.
WealthyPlumber replied the topic: News, events about Drone Delivery Canada CSE:FLT
Drone Delivery an olympics winner, you guys see this
The setting? PyeongChang, South Korea in freezing cold temperatures. The goal? Fly over 1200 Intel Shooting Star drones for a record-breaking performance. Follow the drone team’s journey to the Opening Ceremony
Gambler replied the topic: News, events about Drone Delivery Canada CSE:FLT
Big news with FLT after market.
TORONTO, Feb. 9, 2018 /PRNewswire/ - Drone Delivery Canada 'DDC or the Company' (TSX.V:FLT OTC:TAKOF), is pleased to announce that Transport Canada has granted the Company a Compliant UAV Operator Special Flight Operations Certificate (SFOC).
A Compliant 'UAS' (Unmanned Aircraft System) was the first of three regulatory components to the Transport Canada Compliant UAS Operator program, and mandatory for a Compliant UAS Operator SFOC, which the Company obtained and announced in December 2017.
Today, receiving this additional approval represents the balance of the remaining two steps of a methodical process to prove the Company's operational safety practices and our professionalism to Transport Canada. This milestone, achieving a Compliant Operator SFOC, is both essential and necessary for any UAV operator wanting to conduct Beyond Visual Line-of-Sight operations; and for our specific purpose of drone delivery services.
"The Company has been working around the clock to achieve compliant status and is both grateful and appreciative of being recognized as a professional and safe operator of unmanned aircraft (UAS) by Transport Canada. Realizing this milestone enables DDC to continue moving towards becoming a leader in drone delivery services for Canadians by Canadians across our vast geography", commented Mark Wuennenberg, Vice-President of Regulatory Affairs Drone Delivery Canada.
Approval of this certificate is the starting point for the commercialization of drone delivery services in Canada. To this end, DDC intends to work with Transport Canada to trial beyond visual range delivery solutions in remote areas of Canada's north.
Drone Delivery Canada appreciates the efforts of Transport Canada in creating a favorable environment to grow innovative technology.
Hoss replied the topic: News, events about Drone Delivery Canada CSE:FLT
Now we are talking, this will deliver me a case of beer to the cottage this summer
TORONTO, Jan. 18, 2018 /CNW/ - Drone Delivery Canada 'DDC or the Company' (TSX.V:FLT OTC:TAKOF), is pleased to announce that it will start testing its Raven X1400 cargo delivery drone in Q1 of 2018.
The Raven X1400 delivery drone is engineered to provide pay load capacities of up to 25lbs and designed to fly approximately 60km. The Raven X1400 boasts a larger payload compared to DDC's Sparrow X1000 Drone which had its Declaration of Compliance accepted by Transport Canada in December 2017. The addition of the Raven X1400 Delivery Drone is designed to meet the challenging weather conditions of Northern Canada and provide larger payloads should the demand for such be present.
To date, DDC has identified approximately 1000 Northern remote communities in Canada where both the Raven X1400 and Sparrow X1000 delivery payloads would both meet and exceed community requirements in terms of deliver payloads and travel distances.
"We continue to develop our platform to expand our capabilities to meet and exceed client requirements," commented Tony Di Benedetto, CEO. "While doing so, we now simply just look to integrate our FLYTE Management System into a newer airframe design to expand the fleet."
The Raven X1400 is fully integrated with the proprietary DDC FLYTE management system. The Raven X1400, unlike the Sparrow X1000, will provide a unique and highly sought after dual payload configuration for both static and tethered deployment. Tethered deployment is a new technology which DDC has been developing over the past twenty-four months which the Company considers revolutionary and quite possibly the future for delivery in urban settings as it is not Drone Spot specific but rather never lands and deploys its payload by tether while hovering above at a height of approximately 100 feet.
DDC will commence testing of the Raven at its in-house testing laboratory evaluating its endurance and reliability and will commence outdoor flights once it has passed its testing procedure and SFOC approvals from Transport Canada.